What is retrospective voting?

Retrospective voting is a theory in political science that suggests that voters make decisions based on the performance of incumbent politicians or parties. Instead of voting for a candidate based on their policy positions or personal characteristics, voters may choose to support or oppose the incumbent based on how they have governed in the past. This form of voting takes into consideration the achievements or failures of the government in power and uses them as a basis for re-election or change.

Retrospective voting can be influenced by a variety of factors, such as the state of the economy, the handling of major issues or crises, and the overall satisfaction with the government's performance. Voters may be more likely to support incumbent politicians if they perceive that the economy is doing well, or if they believe that the government has effectively addressed important issues. Conversely, voters may choose to oust incumbent politicians if they are dissatisfied with how they have governed or if they believe that a change in leadership is necessary.

While retrospective voting can be a useful way for voters to hold politicians accountable for their actions, it can also lead to short-term decision-making and a focus on immediate results rather than long-term outcomes. Additionally, voters may not always have access to accurate information about the performance of incumbent politicians, which can influence their decisions at the ballot box.